Využití standardních a prospektivních ukazatelů věkové struktury

Šídlo, L., Šprocha, B., Ďurček, P. 2020. A retrospective and prospective view of current and future population ageing in the European Union 28 countries. Moravian Geographical Reports, 28(3): 187–207. DOI: 10.2478/mgr-2020-0014. [IF (2019) = 2.479]

Abstract: Population ageing in the EU28 is an important twenty-first century phenomenon, affecting virtually every aspect of life in these countries. The results of the latest EUROPOP2018 population forecast indicate that the rate of ageing is accelerating. The aim of this paper is to analyse the current level of population ageing in the EU28, identify spatial differences, and point to likely trends by the middle of this century. For these purposes, we have used a combination of conventional chronological indicators of population ageing and a set of new indicators based on prospective age that allows for a more comprehensive and realistic view of population ageing. We use multivariate statistical methods (factor and cluster analysis) to identify groups of countries with similar population ageing characteristics, using both a retrospective and prospective approach. We decompose changes in selected ageing indicators into the separate effects of changes in the population composition (children under 15, working-age population, elderly). We then identify the effect of major demographic factors (migration, mortality, cohort turnover) for the set of EU28 countries.

Šídlo, L., Šprocha, B., Ďurček, P. 2020. Prospective Dimension of Population Ageing and Potential Use in Pension Security in the V4 Countries. Ekonomický časopis, 68(6): 601–621. Dostupné zde [IF (2019) = 0.560]

Abstract: The main aim of the paper is to highlight the importance of remaining years of life in relation to demographic ageing. We use the V4 countries as our case study and analyse demographic ageing using the concept of prospective age and the relevant indicators to consider whether statutory retirement age should be readdressed given the rise in remaining life expectancy among seniors. The classic indicators show ageing is increasing in the V4 countries. Using prospective indicators we can see that not only is the level of ageing significantly lower but that it is progressing more slowly, and in some cases reversing. The prospective approach could also be important in setting pension age as it reflects changes in life and the principle of equitability. The results also show that the way pension age is fixed in the V4 countries may pose a risk to the sustainability of pension systems.

Šídlo, L., Šprocha, B., Klapková, M. 2019. Regional differences in population aging in Europe viewed through prospective indicators. Erdkunde, 73(3): 225–240. DOI: 10.3112/erdkunde.2019.03.06. [IF (2019) = 1.639]

Abstract: Demographic aging has been one of the most discussed aspects of population development in recent decades. Complex changes in reproductive behaviour and their impact on both age structure and future population development are often the source of concerns about the stability of socioeconomic systems (e.g. pension systems, healthcare and the labour market). Frequently reinforced by the development and use of standard demographic aging indicators and comparisons over time and space and/or between populations, this one-sided view is problematic given significant changes in population mortality and health. Population aging has moreover traditionally been analysed in relation to national and regional differences, with specificities frequently being overlooked. Using new methods for analysing demographic aging based on prospective age, which accounts for changes in life expectancy over time and therefore more accurately captures demographic aging, we attempt to identify the main spatial patterns of regional differentiation in aging in Europe (at the NUTS2 level). We also attempt to create a typology of Europe’s regions using the main aging indicators and thereby identify the areas most affected by demographic aging.