Creeping future of reptiles and amphibians

Existing protected areas are important in conserving both species and their natural habitats. Unfortunately, climate change affects these habitats, and the efficiency of protected areas in the future is unknown. Knowing how species distribution might change is crucial for the development of conservation management strategies such as additions to the existing protected areas or targeted protection of the most threatened species.

Species distribution models (SDMs) are used to determine the best management strategy. This computer algorithm uses data such as temperature, precipitation, and other variables to predict species range dynamics. Amphibians and reptiles are recognized as nature’s most endangered animals – their numbers are decreasing drastically mostly because of global warming. Despite that, SDMs haven’t been used to evaluate the effectiveness of protecting the global herpetofauna from climate change. To change that, researchers gathered herpetofauna distributional data from all over the world and looked at the effectiveness of existing protected areas in reptile and amphibian conservation under current and future climate scenarios.

The reptile Ceratophora erdeleni is endemic to Sri Lanka and is also threatened by climate change. Source: Wikimedie Commons, Author: Buddhika Mawella

More than 90 % of reptiles and amphibians have suitable habitats in the existing protected areas and this proportion is going to increase under climate change. This might seem like a good thing, but it’s not. The proportion of suitable habitats for herpetofauna in protected areas is going to increase because such habitats outside protected areas will be lost due to climate change and other negative factors. Therefore, protected areas are going to be even more important for the distribution of reptiles and amphibians.

Nonetheless, the importance of protected areas won’t be the same everywhere. For example, protected areas would become more effective for amphibians, but less effective for reptiles in South America. Overall, protected areas will be important in the conservation of herpetofauna in most regions of the world. A potential explanation for that is that the climate is less extreme and global changes aren’t as fast inside protected areas. Furthermore, there is higher precipitation, which is preferred by both amphibians and reptiles. All these factors mitigate the negative impacts of climate change.

This toad, Anaxyrus baxteri, has already disappeared from the wild due to climate change, among other things. It's up to us to make sure more species don't end up like this. Source: Wikimedia commons

Unfortunately, scientists predict that hundreds of reptiles and amphibians will go extinct due to climate change over the course of the ongoing century. It doesn’t help that even now many species do not occur within existing protected areas and this number will increase in the future. It was also found that many species have only a small proportion of their area in protected reserves. This has to change by expanding them. Furthermore, researchers recommend enhancing the conservation effectiveness of less protected areas. These are mostly in tropical and subtropical forests, and in developing countries, where gaps in nature protection are the biggest.

Changes that come with global warming are creeping up slowly but surely. We mustn’t underestimate them, and it is important to take action to protect endangered species in time. Common saying better later than never doesn’t work in this case.

Eliška Leštinová

Mi, C., Ma, L., Yang, M. et al. Global Protected Areas as refuges for amphibians and reptiles under climate change. Nat Commun 14, 1389 (2023). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-023-36987-y